Global Commission on AI Risks
Prepared under the auspices of The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
1. Strategic Purpose and Global Context
1.1 Mission Statement To establish a permanent, inclusive, and foresight-aligned governance body to identify, mitigate, and coordinate responses to systemic risks arising from artificial intelligence.
1.2 Why Now AI has moved beyond innovation into societal infrastructure. The absence of enforceable and trusted global mechanisms for its governance now poses escalating risks to humanity.
1.3 Global Risk Acceleration From climate-algorithmic misalignment to autonomous weapon systems, AI is entangled with cascading planetary risks across ecological, geopolitical, and socio-economic domains.
1.4 Governance Vacuum Current forums are fragmented, reactive, or limited to governmental actors. There is no standing body with the legitimacy, independence, and technical capacity to govern AI globally.
1.5 Multilateral Gap Unlike climate or trade, AI lacks a Geneva-anchored, clause-governed, and simulation-validated framework for coordination between states, institutions, and non-state actors.
1.6 Non-State Inclusion The future of AI governance cannot be the domain of governments alone. GCAIR embraces a quintuple helix structure including science, finance, civil society, and enterprise.
1.7 Diplomatic Innovation GCAIR introduces a new form of diplomacy: anticipatory, participatory, and clause-verifiable—aligned with foresight-driven, sovereign-safe risk governance.
1.8 Intergenerational Accountability The Commission is designed to serve both present and future generations through multi-decade simulation, clause logic, and scenario-tested ethical frameworks.
1.9 Mandate Anchoring The Commission is hosted under the GRF, governed by GCRI, and structurally interoperable with UN ECOSOC, IMF/World Bank Civil Society tracks, and the Santiago Network.
1.10 Public Benefit Design Every function of the Commission—research, certification, standard-setting—is oriented toward the public interest, with transparency and planetary equity at its core.
2. Institutional Architecture and Legal Foundations
2.1 Founding Authority GCAIR is constituted as an independent global body by GCRI, under its nonprofit scientific mandate and special consultative status with the UN ECOSOC.
2.2 Host Platform The Commission is institutionally anchored within the Global Risks Forum (GRF), a multilateral platform for clause-verifiable foresight and governance convenings.
2.3 Legal Autonomy GCAIR operates under Swiss and international nonprofit law, independent from state control or corporate capture, and governed entirely by member participants.
2.4 Structural Composition The Commission comprises a Secretariat, Working Groups, a Global Assembly, Regional and National Councils, and a permanent Simulation Infrastructure.
2.5 Jurisdictional Interoperability Its frameworks are designed to align with national legislation, regional regulatory ecosystems (EU, AU, ASEAN), and treaty-grade protocols.
2.6 Clause Governance Protocols Every rule, action, and decision is encoded through certified machine-readable clauses ensuring traceability, verifiability, and zero-trust compatibility.
2.7 IP and Standards Governance GCAIR operates with an open standards charter, licensing simulation outputs, certification tools, and policy models under a sovereign public benefit regime.
2.8 Nonprofit and Fiduciary Integrity All Commission operations are non-commercial, transparently audited, and governed by fiduciary obligations embedded in GCRI’s constitutional structure.
2.9 Memoranda of Cooperation GCAIR is enabled to sign MoUs with governments, UN bodies, financial institutions, and scientific organizations under a clause-based engagement framework.
2.10 Delegated Regional Bodies Legal provisions support national commissions and regional forums (e.g., Asia-Pacific AI Forum, EU-Africa Risk Dialogue) under the global charter.
3. Core Functions and Mandates
3.1 AI Risk Taxonomy and Prioritization Develop and continuously update a global taxonomy of AI risks, from narrow misuse to existential scenarios, including geopolitical, ecological, and epistemic vectors.
3.2 Global Registry of AI Systems Establish and maintain a clause-certified global ledger of frontier AI models, foundation models, dual-use tools, and compute-intensive systems.
3.3 Simulation-Governed Risk Assessments Use structured foresight scenarios and Nexus simulations to evaluate model behaviors, misalignment potentials, and systemic tipping points.
3.4 Policy and Regulatory Harmonization Co-develop clause-based model laws and governance recommendations interoperable with national constitutions, regional directives, and international law.
3.5 Sovereign-Safe Infrastructure Standards Define safety, explainability, auditability, and licensing protocols for sovereign deployment of AI infrastructure and data governance models.
3.6 Capital Risk and Financial Stability Interface Publish systemic AI risk indicators, integrate with central banks, ESG frameworks, and systemic risk dashboards for pre-emptive capital governance.
3.7 Diplomatic and Security Engagement Facilitate cross-border de-escalation, confidence-building, and treaty-ready frameworks for AI disarmament, accountability, and export control.
3.8 Ethical and Social Governance Track Create participatory standards for equitable access, anti-bias safeguards, and protection of human rights and cultural integrity in AI deployment.
3.9 Youth, Indigenous, and Global South Inclusion Ensure representation and active decision-making participation for underrepresented constituencies in all working groups and governance outputs.
3.10 Public Engagement and Civic Dialogue Maintain open foresight portals, public dashboards, clause walkthroughs, and digital participation layers for global community co-governance.
4. Simulation, Verification, and Clause Frameworks
4.1 Nexus Simulation Integration All policy, treaty, and capital models must pass simulation under the Nexus Ecosystem, verifying risk impact, foresight accuracy, and clause consistency.
4.2 NSF-Sim Certification Protocols Every major output is certified through the Nexus Sovereignty Framework Simulation (NSF-Sim), linking clause logic to simulation foresight integrity.
4.3 Clause Grammar Infrastructure GCAIR builds on Nexus Clause Grammar to unify legal, financial, and technical execution—enabling smart policy, regulatory code, and public contracts.
4.4 Scenario Class Library Commission scenarios are indexed across short-, medium-, and long-term class libraries for use in planning, national strategy, and treaty formulation.
4.5 Clause Audit and Red Teaming All proposed frameworks are subject to adversarial red-teaming and clause-level audit cycles to ensure performance, ethics, and security compliance.
4.6 Digital Sovereignty Safeguards Simulations and clauses are executed only within sovereign-safe compute environments with zero-trust, DIDs, and post-quantum cryptographic safeguards.
4.7 Simulation-Linked Certification Commission models, standards, and outputs carry simulation-based certification that can be reused by states, banks, and institutions globally.
4.8 Forecast Ledger and Archives All simulation outputs, clause decisions, and foresight documents are stored on a verifiable forecast ledger ensuring continuity and accountability.
4.9 Commons Contribution Index All members’ simulation contributions are logged in the GRF-GCAIR commons ledger, attributing foresight impact and clause authorship across jurisdictions.
4.10 Future Clause Library All decisions are archived in a cross-generational clause repository, allowing future assemblies to trace intent, foresight, and outcomes.
5. Governance Bodies and Membership
5.1 Commission Secretariat Permanent Geneva-based operational body overseeing logistics, simulations, diplomatic channels, and publication.
5.2 GRF Leaders Council – AI Track Founding multistakeholder advisory body of Patron, Fellow, and Affiliate Members serving as the constitutional framers of GCAIR.
5.3 Scientific and Technical Working Groups Cross-disciplinary, simulation-credentialed groups working on risk modeling, clause design, regulatory pathways, and model evaluation.
5.4 Regional Commissions Decentralized yet clause-aligned bodies across continents to localize risk, adapt clauses, and coordinate foresight diplomacy.
5.5 National Taskforces Nationally nominated, clause-certified bodies aligned with domestic AI governance strategies but interoperable with global protocols.
5.6 Youth and Equity Panels Multigenerational panels ensuring ethics, future representation, and participatory standards embedded across all governance levels.
5.7 Foresight Fellows Program Nomination-based expert track for contributing scientific, regulatory, and policy insight into the Commission’s outputs.
5.8 Simulation Diplomacy Council Appointed body responsible for interfacing with national governments, UN agencies, and regional blocs on AI foresight and simulations.
5.9 Global Assembly Biennial plenary session ratifying frameworks, reviewing simulation forecasts, and setting intergenerational policy direction.
5.10 Board of Ethical and Technical Advisors Rotating panel ensuring all outputs uphold ethical integrity, simulation accuracy, and compliance with clause governance norms.
6. Policy Integration and Diplomatic Instruments
6.1 Treaty-Grade Clause Frameworks Build exportable policy modules that can be integrated into UN treaties, digital compacts, or climate-AI frameworks.
6.2 Memoranda of Strategic Cooperation Enable state, multilateral, or institutional partnerships without requiring new treaties through clause-governed MoUs.
6.3 Alignment with International Law Ensure clause compatibility with GDPR, IHR, UNCITRAL, WTO frameworks, and national constitutional boundaries.
6.4 Model Law Proposals Publish clause-based draft legislation that national parliaments or ministries can adapt directly with simulation references.
6.5 Multilateral Alignment Framework Create common clause blocks across AI, climate, finance, and risk frameworks to enable holistic treaty negotiations.
6.6 Parametric Governance Protocols Design triggers, thresholds, and clause logic that can automate governance under forecasted risk conditions.
6.7 Interoperable Licensing Structures Enable smart contract-based reuse of frameworks across regions, ensuring enforceability through clause attestations.
6.8 Simulation-Evaluated Sanctions and Incentives Support capital regulation or AI infrastructure access based on clause compliance or breach simulation.
6.9 Humanitarian and Crisis Protocols Develop AI-focused crisis response clauses integrated with humanitarian relief, peacebuilding, and disaster preparedness.
6.10 Post-Treaty Review Mechanisms Provide audit trails and clause evaluation dashboards for treaty compliance reviews and diplomatic verification.
7. Regional and National Deployment
7.1 Continental Commission Nodes Establish Regional Commissions (e.g., Africa AI Risk Forum, Latin America AI Council) governed by clause alignment and simulation integrity with GCAIR.
7.2 National Councils on AI Risks Support governments in establishing National AI Risk Councils aligned with GCAIR protocols while preserving domestic legal sovereignty.
7.3 Clause-Aligned Federal Agencies Enable integration of clauses into ministries (e.g., Digital Affairs, Public Safety, National Research Councils) via standardized implementation toolkits.
7.4 Simulation Corridors Develop high-priority deployment zones (e.g., Arctic Data Corridors, Coastal Urban Simulation Nodes) for real-time policy testing and resilience forecasting.
7.5 Regulatory Sandbox Integration Provide national regulatory bodies with clause-certified simulation protocols to support AI testing within legal sandboxes.
7.6 Decentralized Nodes and Observatories Deploy sovereign-grade foresight nodes that can operate under GCRI license, governed by zero-trust, edge-compute standards.
7.7 Legislative Support Modules Publish ready-to-deploy legal clauses and parliamentary briefings for countries to enact GCAIR-aligned AI governance.
7.8 Multilingual Clause Governance Ensure that all Commission instruments are accessible in multiple languages, including AI-verified translation and semantic equivalence.
7.9 Civil Society Local Interface Equip NGOs, advocacy groups, and research centers with GCAIR foresight dashboards and clause tools for localized engagement and monitoring.
7.10 Regional Sovereignty Conventions Facilitate the drafting of regional sovereignty agreements (e.g., for AI data localization or military AI restrictions) through diplomatic simulation.
8. Capital, Finance, and Infrastructure Integration
8.1 ESG and AI Risk Integration Develop clause-certified AI risk metrics for ESG funds, sovereign bond markets, and global asset rating agencies.
8.2 Clause-Verified Capital Disclosure Ensure AI-related financial disclosures are clause-bound and simulation-audited—mandatory for regulated entities using high-risk models.
8.3 AI in Financial Infrastructure Partner with central banks and clearinghouses to assess AI-induced systemic risk in algorithmic trading, payments, and credit modeling.
8.4 Parametric Risk Finance for AI Events Create financial instruments that release capital automatically in the event of simulated or real AI-induced systemic failures.
8.5 Smart Licensing and Sovereign Clauses Enable capital deployment tied to clause certification of AI models, compute platforms, and government infrastructure projects.
8.6 Commons-Contribution Royalty Structures Embed commons licensing models that allow for equitable monetization and benefit-sharing of public interest AI innovations.
8.7 Institutional Investor Standards Develop GCAIR-aligned AI impact due diligence protocols for institutional investors, pensions, and sovereign wealth funds.
8.8 Public-Private Risk Pooling Models Establish hybrid insurance or capital reserve mechanisms for AI-related black swan events affecting public systems.
8.9 AI Infrastructure Audit Fund Create a clause-backed global fund to subsidize independent audit of AI systems deployed in public or safety-critical sectors.
8.10 Intergenerational Capital Stewardship Ensure long-term financial planning integrates AI foresight models over 25–100-year timelines with simulation-adjusted risk weightings.
9. Public Engagement, Education, and Inclusion
9.1 Public Foresight Dashboards Deploy global, regional, and national dashboards showing clause trajectories, simulation outputs, and AI risk indicators in plain language.
9.2 AI Governance Learning Hub Build open-access education infrastructure to teach youth, policymakers, journalists, and the public how clause governance works.
9.3 Global Participatory Forums Host deliberative events, virtual assemblies, and citizen panels linked to regional observatories and national taskforces.
9.4 Clause Commons Platform Launch a public-facing interface for co-authoring, commenting, and reusing clause-based governance instruments.
9.5 Youth Simulation Academy Train next-generation foresight fellows through simulation labs and participatory clause drafting with intergenerational accountability.
9.6 Equity and Justice Clause Track Maintain a track for ethics, anti-bias, digital rights, and access justice with clause protocols for underserved communities.
9.7 Civic Technology Deployment Partner with cities and local governments to co-deploy GCAIR-aligned AI applications with built-in public accountability mechanisms.
9.8 Transparency Protocols Ensure all Commission outputs are open by default, machine-readable, and accessible through public APIs and semantic search.
9.9 Media Literacy and AI Risk Reporting Equip journalists and media outlets with clause-aligned reporting kits to ensure responsible communication about AI-related risk.
9.10 Trust Metrics and Public Sentiment Mapping Develop simulation-grounded indicators for public trust in AI, updating live based on sentiment, behavior, and participatory input.
10. Future Trajectory and Global Foresight
10.1 Intergenerational Clause Mandate GCAIR embeds long-term stewardship through clauses designed for 25, 50, and 100-year foresight horizons.
10.2 Planetary AI Risk Treaty Framework Convene governments and institutions to co-develop the first clause-based, simulation-attested global treaty on AI safety and alignment.
10.3 GCAIR Digital Constitution Publish the founding digital charter of rights, responsibilities, and clauses governing the AI–human–planet interface.
10.4 Bioregional Foresight Labs Deploy simulation facilities embedded in ecological bioregions to forecast AI impact on climate, water, biodiversity, and land use.
10.5 Quantum and Post-AI Risk Coordination Prepare clause infrastructure for future risks from quantum compute, post-AI convergence, synthetic intelligence, and hybrid systems.
10.6 Treaty-Compatible Clause Export Library Maintain a registry of clause-certified governance models exportable to the UN, regional blocs, and national policy systems.
10.7 Simulation-Based Governance Index (SGI) Create the first global index evaluating governments, corporations, and institutions based on simulation-backed governance performance.
10.8 Global Memory Architecture Preserve foresight decisions, simulation outputs, and clause records for future generations using secure, distributed ledgers.
10.9 Succession and Clause Evolution Protocols Define mechanisms for revising, archiving, or transforming clauses and simulation models with full traceability and legitimacy.
10.10 Global Convergence Summit Host a decadal summit to review planetary AI foresight, ratify new clauses, realign institutional mandates, and review global preparedness scores.
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