Simulation as Prerequisite for Upgrades

Mandating Predictive Validation Before Governance Logic Is Upgraded or Deployed at Scale

6.5.1 Why Simulations Are Mandatory in the Upgrade Lifecycle

In NSF, clauses are not static—they evolve in response to:

• New risk models

• Shifting governance requirements

• Jurisdictional updates

• Scientific advancements

• Institutional learning

However, upgrades without foresight are dangerous in high-stakes environments. Unsimulated policy logic can:

• Fail silently

• Trigger misallocations of aid or finance

• Undermine treaty compliance

• Breach jurisdictional or credential constraints

To prevent this, every clause upgrade in NSF must be preceded by a simulation protocol, approved by the governing SimDAO, and cryptographically bound to the clause version.

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6.5.2 Binding Clause Versions to Simulation Forecasts

Each upgrade proposal must reference:

• The prior clause hash (e.g., [email protected])

• The proposed new version (e.g., [email protected])

• The simulation model(s) used for testing

• The simulation execution VCs

• Comparative policy outputs across identical conditions

Clause metadata example:

"upgrade_from": "[email protected]",
"simulations": [
  {
    "model_id": "[email protected]",
    "run_id": "sim-0x8a23f",
    "risk_output": 0.92,
    "coverage_gain": "+14.6%",
    "execution_delta": "-3.8% latency"
  }
]

This allows auditors, DAOs, and TEE environments to prove that the upgrade is grounded in validated futures.

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6.5.3 Accepted Simulation Conditions

Each clause category has simulation preconditions:

Clause Type	Simulation Requirement
Disaster Response	Must simulate at least 3 historical disasters and 2 forecast futures
Finance Disbursement	Must model 3 volatility scenarios and 2 liquidity constraints
Health Emergency	Must model infection spread, supply chain stress, and institutional surge capacity
Environmental Enforcement	Must show cross-boundary impact mitigation across treaty jurisdictions

These simulations must be executed in verified TEEs or ZK environments and be attested via SimulationRunVCs.

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6.5.4 Simulation Execution Constraints

Simulation protocols must be:

• Run on approved SimDAO infrastructure

• Use DAO-approved models (e.g., [email protected])

• Include reproducible seeds and randomness sources

• Be verifiable via CAC proofs

• Output attested hashes, input sets, and scenario definitions

This ensures upgrades are not black box governance transitions, but provable improvements.

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6.5.5 DAO Review of Simulation Output

SimDAO members review:

• Input fairness

• Output alignment with stated clause goals

• Execution reproducibility

• Risk class compatibility

• Model provenance

This is logged as a SimulationReviewVC, signed and attached to the clause upgrade bundle.

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6.5.6 Simulation Delta Analysis

The difference between old and new clause logic must be quantified via:

• Execution delta (compute cost, response latency)

• Outcome delta (who benefits, how much is saved)

• Coverage delta (populations or geographies newly supported or excluded)

• Complexity delta (added dependency trees or escalation paths)

This delta is reviewed during DAO vote and made visible in the clause registry for transparency.

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6.5.7 Anchoring Upgrades to Simulation Proofs

Upon DAO approval:

• The new clause hash is bound to the accepted simulation hash

• The simulation model version is locked

• The delta analysis is frozen into the clause metadata

• The old clause is marked as deprecated

• Runtime environments reject the old clause after a timeout period

Proof graph:

[Clause Upgrade Proposal]
    ↳ requires
[SimulationRunVC]
    ↳ computed using
[ForecastModelVC]
    ↳ approved by
[SimDAO]

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6.5.8 Clause Family Anchors and Simulation Inheritance

If a clause is part of a family (e.g., FloodRelief@*), then:

• All upgrades within that family must reference common simulation constraints

• Simulation forecasts must support delta modeling across versions

• Clause inheritance graphs are used to ensure simulation reusability and coherence

Clause families enable evolutionary governance, grounded in foresight and scientific continuity.

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6.5.9 Audit Layer Traceability of Upgraded Logic

Audit tools expose:

• Previous clause versions

• Attached simulation runs

• Risk profiles for each version

• Simulation reviewers' credentials

• Vote tallies on upgrade approval

• Fork warnings and usage incompatibility notices

Example query:

show all clauses upgraded in Q3-2025  
where risk delta > 0.2  
and model_version changed

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6.5.10 Simulation as the Pillar of Legitimate Machine-Executed Governance

In NSF:

• Governance is not triggered by hunches

• Upgrades are not pushed without evidence

• Policy is not “hotpatched” in the field

Instead, upgrades are simulated, attested, anchored, voted, and executed through verifiable infrastructure.

This ensures NSF remains resilient, predictive, and institutionally credible—in every risk domain, for every clause.