Clause Validation Against Forecasted States

Ensuring That Policy Logic Executes Only When Risk Simulations Meet Verifiable Conditions

7.3.1 Clause Logic as Forecast-Dependent Infrastructure

In the NSF protocol, every executable policy clause may include one or more simulation-dependent conditions.

These conditions bind the clause’s activation to the output of forecast models, ensuring that high-stakes actions—such as capital deployment, emergency response, or credential revocation—only proceed when predicted risk states exceed validated thresholds.

This enforces a contract between:

• Forecast evidence

• Governance intent

• Clause logic

• Execution trust domain

No clause may execute without a SimulationRunVC that matches its forecast preconditions.

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7.3.2 The Forecast-Bound Clause Architecture

Each clause includes a simulation_validation section, with:

• Required model/template ID

• Forecast output key (e.g., risk_score)

• Threshold logic (e.g., risk_score > 0.85)

• Time horizon

• Forecast confidence or error bounds

• Accepted signers (SimDAO oracles, credentialed validators)

Example clause binding:

"simulation_validation": {
  "template": "[email protected]",
  "output_key": "risk_score",
  "threshold": "greater_than",
  "value": 0.85,
  "forecast_window": "next_7_days",
  "required_endorsements": ["SimDAO-Asia", "DAOAuditor@UNDRR"]
}

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7.3.3 Clause Trigger Logic Types

Trigger Type	Description
Direct Risk Score	Simple scalar comparison (e.g., risk > 0.9)
Multivariate Evaluation	Compound logic (e.g., flood_risk > 0.8 && ICU_usage > 75%)
Distribution Trigger	Probabilistic thresholds (e.g., P(risk > 0.8) > 95%)
Time-Averaged Score	Sustained risk over time (e.g., avg_risk > 0.6 over 10 days)
Change Detection	Delta threshold (e.g., risk ↑ 15% in last 72h)

All logic must be executable, testable, and interpretable by the clause validator and CAC runtime.

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7.3.4 Forecast Input Provenance Requirements

The clause validator enforces that:

• The forecast was run with credentialed data injectors

• The input schema matches the clause-approved Risk Template

• All input sources are hashed and time-signed

• All data lies within declared jurisdiction and time bounds

• The simulation model version matches clause version constraints

If any condition fails, the clause is not authorized to execute.

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7.3.5 DAO-Attested Forecast Validity

Each SimulationRunVC must include:

• Simulation run hash

• Clause compatibility flag

• Signatures from the governing SimDAO

• Input provenance tree

• Execution timestamp

• ZK attestation (if applicable)

Clauses reference this proof during runtime validation:

"validated_forecast": "SimulationRunVC#0x4fe91..."

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7.3.6 Dynamic vs Static Threshold Binding

Clauses may define:

• Static triggers (e.g., risk must exceed 0.9)

• Dynamic triggers (e.g., top 10% risk percentile across region)

• Externalized thresholds (e.g., fetched from TreatyDAO policy layer)

• Adaptive thresholds (e.g., escalates with increasing simulation uncertainty)

These must be resolvable at CAC runtime via on-chain governance or credentialed oracles.

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7.3.7 Forecast-Driven Clause Freezing

If:

• No valid forecast exists

• Forecast input fails verification

• Model used has been deprecated

• Simulation mismatch occurs (e.g., wrong version, wrong jurisdiction)

• Required endorsements are missing

…the clause is automatically frozen, and a governance or dispute flag is emitted to the Audit Layer.

This ensures that simulation-incompatible clauses cannot silently execute.

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7.3.8 Re-Validation and Forecast Replays

DAO governance may require:

• Forecast re-execution (if challenged or outdated)

• Risk class re-mapping (e.g., after new treaty thresholds adopted)

• Cross-model consensus (e.g., average of 3 models required)

• Jurisdictional exception simulation (e.g., local override logic)

All re-validations must be logged and anchored as updated SimulationRunVCs.

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7.3.9 Integration with Clause Versioning

When clause logic is updated:

• A new forecast must be executed under the updated condition

• SimDAO and clause DAO must re-sign the new binding

• Prior forecasts are archived but not reused unless explicitly authorized

• Version lineage is maintained in the Clause Registry

This ensures future simulations match the governance context of current clause logic.

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7.3.10 Simulation-Constrained Governance as a First-Class Citizen

In NSF:

• Forecasts are not optional inputs—they are constitutional evidence

• Clauses are not logic scripts—they are risk-bound governance instruments

• Simulations do not suggest—they authorize

This elevates foresight to governance enforcement, producing a global machine-verifiable system of evidence-based policy activation across disaster, finance, health, and environmental domains.