SCRIBE 3.0

1. Overview of SCRIBE 3.0

• Developed by: Atmospheric, Climate, and Water Systems Branch, Canadian Meteorological Centre.

• Purpose: Automated forecast generation using knowledge-based processing of meteorological data.

• Data Sources: Uses numerical model outputs, statistical weather guidance, and observational data.

• Applications: Generates public, marine, agricultural, fire weather, and precipitation forecasts.

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2. General Framework

The SCRIBE system architecture consists of multiple data processing layers that work together to create forecast products.

2.1 Input Data Sources

SCRIBE processes weather matrices from ensemble stations across Canada, including:

• Numerical Model Outputs (e.g., Canadian Regional Model, Canadian Global Model).

• Statistical Weather Element Guidance.

• Observations from Weather Stations.

• Radar and Satellite Data.

The system updates forecasts dynamically by integrating new observational data before finalizing a forecast product.

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3. Product Generator

SCRIBE 3.0 is designed for flexibility, allowing users to define and generate their own products without expert intervention.

3.1 How Forecasts Are Generated

• The Knowledge Base System (KBS) processes meteorological data matrices to extract weather events.

• The Product Generator then converts these extracted weather events into forecast products.

• Users can edit, modify, and customize forecast outputs before publication.

3.2 Core Components of the System

• Knowledge Base System (KBS):

  • Uses over 1,800 rules for forecast generation.

  • Extracts weather concepts from raw data.

  • Manages and processes meteorological inputs dynamically.

• Relational Database Management System (DBMS):

  • Stores static forecast data such as time zones, issue times, product codes.

  • Uses SQL queries to retrieve relevant static data for forecasts.

• Blackboard System:

  • Controls forecast generation by integrating data requests from DBMS and KBS.

  • Allows users to define specifications for forecast products (via Product Description Files - PDFs).

3.3 Forecast Customization

• Users can generate customized forecasts for:

  • Public weather bulletins.

  • Marine forecasts.

  • Agricultural reports.

  • Fire weather predictions.

  • Specialized text and graphical forecasts.

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4. Assimilation of Observations

To ensure forecasts reflect real-time conditions, SCRIBE 3.0 incorporates observational data into forecasts.

4.1 How Observations Are Integrated

• Observations (e.g., radar, satellite data) are matched with numerical model outputs.

• Interpolation techniques are used to integrate hourly observations into forecast models.

• A relaxation module (under development) will allow blending of real-time data with numerical predictions.

4.2 Nowcasting & Real-Time Updates

• The system is being expanded to incorporate nowcasting (short-term real-time forecasts).

• Radar and satellite data ingestion is planned for future updates.

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5. Verification & Accuracy Assessment

SCRIBE 3.0 includes a verification system to measure forecast accuracy and value addition.

5.1 Performance Metrics

The system evaluates forecasts for:

• Maximum/Minimum Temperatures.

• Probability of Precipitation.

• Cloud Cover Predictions.

• Wind Speed and Direction.

• Precipitation Type and Amount.

Future enhancements will allow real-time verification metrics to be generated on-demand.

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6. Conclusions & Future Development

• SCRIBE 3.0 provides an advanced, automated system for meteorological forecast generation.

• Flexibility and modularity allow customization of forecasts for various user needs.

• Integration of observational data improves forecast accuracy.

• Future improvements will focus on nowcasting, expanded verification, and graphical visualization enhancements.

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7. References & Further Reading

• Technical Documentation: Canadian Meteorological Centre.

• SCRIBE 3.0 Research Papers:

  • Verification of Public Forecasts (Babin et al., 1995).

  • Global Spectral Modeling (Béland & Beaudoin, 1985).

  • Operational Regional Weather Forecasting (Staniforth & Mailhot, 1988).

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8. Conclusion

The SCRIBE 3.0 system is a powerful tool for automated meteorological forecast generation, supporting weather prediction, disaster planning, and environmental monitoring. With advanced knowledge-based processing, integration of real-time data, and forecast verification, it serves as a valuable asset for meteorologists and operational forecast centers.