Water: Storm
1. Global Deterministic Storm Surge Prediction System (GDSPS)
Description:
The GDSPS produces water level forecasts using a modified version of the NEMO ocean model. It provides 240-hour forecasts twice daily on a 1/12° resolution grid (approximately 3–9 km). The model is forced by 10-meter winds, sea level pressure, ice concentration, ice velocity, and surface currents from the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS). Additionally, the model's three-dimensional ocean temperature and salinity fields are nudged to values provided by the Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS) and the GDPS. During post-processing, storm surge elevation (ETAS) is derived from total water level (SSH) by harmonic analysis.
Available Variables:
Total Water Level (SSH): Sea surface height relative to a reference level.
Storm Surge Elevation (ETAS): Elevation of the storm surge component, derived through harmonic analysis.
Potential AI/ML Applications:
Developing predictive models for global storm surge events.
Assessing the impact of storm surges on coastal infrastructure.
Enhancing early warning systems for coastal flooding.
2. Regional Ensemble Storm Surge Prediction System (RESPS)
Description:
The RESPS produces storm surge forecasts using the DalCoast ocean model, a system based on the depth-integrated, barotropic, and linearized form of the Princeton Ocean Model. It is forced by 10-meter winds and sea level pressure from the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). This ensemble approach accounts for uncertainties in atmospheric conditions, providing a range of possible storm surge scenarios.
Available Variables:
Ensemble Storm Surge Elevations: Multiple realizations of storm surge heights, reflecting different possible outcomes based on varying atmospheric inputs.
Potential AI/ML Applications:
Quantifying uncertainty in storm surge forecasts for specific regions.
Improving risk assessments for coastal areas under threat from storm surges.
Supporting decision-making in emergency management through probabilistic surge predictions.
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