Variables

1. Weather Alerts and Public Forecasts

  • Weather and Marine Alerts • Official severe weather warnings (including heat warnings) • Marine alerts (useful if coastal heat–storm interactions are considered)

  • Current Weather Conditions and 7-Day Forecasts • Real-time temperature (current 2‑m air temperature) • Relative humidity • Wind speed and direction • Precipitation forecasts • Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) forecasts (for potential synergistic health impacts)

2. Observations

  • Surface Observations (In Situ Data) • 2‑m Temperature (both maximum and minimum values, used to compute daily means) • Relative Humidity • Wind Speed and Wind Direction • Precipitation amounts • Surface Pressure

  • Weather Radar Imagery • Radar reflectivity (captures convective activity and precipitation intensity) • Composite radar images (e.g., North American Radar Composite available every 6 minutes)

  • Lightning Density • Lightning flash density maps (as proxy for convective intensity)

  • Satellite Observations • Land Surface Temperature (LST) from satellites (e.g., MODIS, VIIRS) • Vegetation indices (which can be combined with LST for urban heat island analysis)

  • Hydrometric Observations • River and reservoir levels (important for water stress during heatwaves)

  • Vertical Profile Observations • Temperature profiles at various atmospheric levels • Humidity profiles • Derived parameters such as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN)

3. Numerical Weather and Environmental Prediction (NWP) Forecasts

A. Atmospheric Forecasts

  • Deterministic Forecasts • Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) • Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) (including vertical profiles) • High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) • Experimental HRDPS-North • Nowcasting matrices (e.g., Scribe nowcasting)

  • Ensemble Forecasts • Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) • North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) • Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS)

  • Precipitation Analysis • Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (RDPA) • High Resolution Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (HRDPA) • High Resolution Ensemble Precipitation Analysis (HREPA) • HRDPA average watershed precipitation

  • Air Quality Forecasts • Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) • Regional Deterministic Air Quality Analysis (RDAQA)

B. Surface and Land Forecasts

  • Surface Products • Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS-NSRPS) • High Resolution Deterministic Land Surface Prediction System (HRDLPS)

4. Water, Ocean, and Ice Products

  • Ice and Ocean Forecasts • Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS) • Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) • Coastal Ice Ocean Prediction System (CIOPS)

  • Wave Forecasts • Global Deterministic Wave Prediction System (GDWPS) • Global Ensemble Wave Prediction System (GEWPS) • Regional Deterministic Wave Prediction System (RDWPS) • Regional Ensemble Wave Prediction System (REWPS)

  • Storm Surge Forecasts • Global Deterministic Storm Surge Prediction System (GDSPS) • Regional Ensemble Storm Surge Prediction System (RESPS)

  • Water Forecasts • Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS) • Operational Hydrodynamic Prediction System (OHPS)

5. Climate Data

  • Historical Climate Records and Normals • Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD) • Canadian Gridded Data (CANGRD) • MSC Climate Normals 1981–2010

  • Climate Model Scenarios and Projections • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) scenarios • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios • Statistically downscaled climate scenarios (DCS) • Statistically scaled climate scenario data (CanDCS-U6)

  • Drought and Moisture Indices • Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) • Statistically downscaled climate indices • Daily Climate Records (Long Term Climate Extremes)

6. Other Data

  • Bulletins and Metadata • Weather bulletins and public messages • Meteocode (for public forecast regions) • MetNotes • Forecast regions polygons

  • Retired Open Data (for historical comparison) • Experimental Canadian Arctic Prediction System (CAPS) • Regional Deterministic Storm Surge Prediction System (RDSPS) • RDPS-CGSL (Regional Deterministic Prediction System – Coupled to Gulf of St. Lawrence) • Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System – FireWork (RAQDPS-FW)

  • Operational Data Changes • Documentation of changes in operational data production systems (useful for ensuring consistency in long-term datasets)

Summary for Heatwave Prediction

For developing heatwave prediction models within the Nexus Ecosystem, the following key variables and products are of particular interest:

  • Temperature Variables: • 2‑m air temperature (current, forecast, and historical averages) • Maximum and minimum temperatures (daily extremes, diurnal cycles)

  • Humidity: • Relative humidity (for calculating indices such as Heat Index and humidex)

  • Wind: • Wind speed and direction (affecting convective processes and cooling)

  • Precipitation: • Precipitation rates and totals (both short-term and aggregated for drought assessment)

  • Atmospheric Stability: • Vertical profiles to derive CAPE and CIN

  • Derived Indices: • Heat Index (HI) • Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) • SPEI (for drought and water stress) • Other potential indices derived from temperature, humidity, and wind profiles

  • Supplementary Variables: • Radar reflectivity for convective activity • Satellite-derived land surface temperature for urban heat island analysis • Hydrometric data (water levels, flows) relevant to drought conditions

  • Ensemble Forecast Products: • Variables derived from ensemble systems to quantify forecast uncertainty

These variables, provided by the MSC Open Data ecosystem, form the backbone of any robust heatwave prediction system. They enable the capture of not only meteorological conditions but also of downstream impacts in water, energy, food, and health sectors.

Additional Considerations

When integrating these variables for modeling:

  • Data consistency (units, timestamps, spatial resolution) is essential.

  • Derived indices must be carefully computed (e.g., converting temperature to the proper scale for the Heat Index formula).

  • Data from MSC can be combined with local data (e.g., urban GIS layers, local energy usage, hydrometric data) to develop a fully integrated Nexus model.

  • Classical NWP products (deterministic and ensemble forecasts) are key to capturing the evolving weather patterns that trigger heatwaves.

  • Data quality and changes (e.g., operational changes or updates in data production) should be monitored via MSC’s documentation and mailing lists.

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