> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.therisk.global/organization/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.therisk.global/organization/model/scenarios/pollinator.md). # Pollinator decline Pollinator decline: the coupled risk across food, health and biodiversity, and the applied response of the programme pillars, as a teaching context of the Nexus model. **Where this fits:** food, health and biodiversity · Labs, Foundry, Nexus Standards and Nexus Reports · the Nexus Consortium · the whole programme year · teaching context. > Fewer pollinators lower yields of fruit and vegetables, with a direct path to diet quality. **In brief.** In this teaching context biodiversity is hit first. 3 of the six sectors are in play through 3 of the fifteen relations, a coupling of 0.21 of the whole system, and the teaching cascade amplifies the initial shock ×1.51. On the response side, 4 of the six pillars apply, with 7 of the eighteen handoffs in play and 2 feedback loops closed. All sector values are **teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place**; the applications are illustrative and the cited values are published benchmarks, not forecasts.
Two hexagons for pollinator decline. Left, coupled risk: biodiversity is hit first; 3 of the six sectors (food, health and biodiversity) are in play through 3 of the fifteen relations, and the teaching cascade amplifies the initial shock 1.51 times. Right, applied response: 4 of the six programme pillars apply (Labs, Foundry, Standards and Reports), with 7 of the eighteen handoffs between them in play and 2 feedback loops closed; the cited headline value is $235–577B crop output at risk a year. Underneath, the eight phases of the programme year in which handoffs happen.

Coupled risk, applied response: pollinator decline. Left: teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements. Right: illustrative applications and the measure each pillar answers for; values are published benchmarks (IPBES, Assessment report on pollinators, 2016), not forecasts. Source: the sectors and pillars model published on the GCRI, GRF and GRA home pages, vendored and hash-pinned in tools/figures/vendor/nexus-model. As of 2026-10-21.

Figure data (text alternative) | Element | Kind | Description | Value | | ----------------------- | ---------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------ | | Food and Health | Relation in play | Food to health: nutrition (0.7); Health to food: farm labour (0.3) | 0.50 | | Food and Biodiversity | Relation in play | Food to biodiversity: land conversion (0.6); Biodiversity to food: pollination and soils (0.6) | 0.60 | | Health and Biodiversity | Relation in play | Health to biodiversity: conservation capacity (0.1); Biodiversity to health: zoonotic spillover and medicines (0.4) | 0.25 | | Water | Sector | outside this context | – | | Energy | Sector | outside this context | – | | Infrastructure | Sector | outside this context | – | | Food | Sector | depends on biodiversity for pollination and soils | stress 0.15 | | Health | Sector | depends on food for nutrition | stress 0.12 | | Biodiversity | Sector | first hit, then depends on food for land conversion | stress 0.63 | | Amplification | Cascade | Shock 0.6 at Biodiversity, gain 0.35, 4 rounds; coupling 0.21 of the total | ×1.51 | | F01 | Handoff | Universe to Foundry: Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision case | Readiness preparation | | F02 | Handoff | Foundry to Universe: Core Build Report and go or no-go evidence | Controlled build | | F03 | Handoff in play | Foundry to Reports: Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile | Closeout | | F04 | Handoff | Universe to Reports: After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 | After-action review | | F05 | Handoff in play | Foundry to Reports: National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 | After-action review | | F06 | Handoff in play | Reports to Standards: Method and correction findings as change proposals | Correction | | F07 | Handoff | Universe to Standards: Docket items that need a standard or a profile | Docket review | | F08 | Handoff in play | Standards to Foundry: Composed mission profiles and national adoption records | Readiness preparation | | F09 | Handoff | Standards to Academy: Each adopted standard or profile becomes a course module | Renewal | | F10 | Handoff | Universe to Academy: Assessed cycle tasks become completion evidence | Closeout | | F11 | Handoff | Academy to Universe: Qualified participants for the next cycle's roles | Renewal | | F12 | Handoff | Reports to Universe: Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate | Renewal | | F13 | Handoff in play | Foundry to Standards: Validation and monitoring evidence for conformance review | Controlled build | | F14 | Handoff | Foundry to Academy: Each system's rooms become a learning-by-doing course | Planning | | R1 | Handoff in play | Standards to Reports: Applied in editions | Around the ring | | R2 | Handoff | Reports to Academy: Taught in the open | Around the ring | | R3 | Handoff | Academy to Labs: Questions become experiments | Around the ring | | R4 | Handoff in play | Labs to Foundry: Tested prototypes are built | Around the ring | | Labs | Pillar | Maps of pollinators and the yields that depend on them | Area mapped ↑ $235–577B | | Foundry | Pillar | Yield and diet-quality model by crop | Crops modelled ↑ | | Universe | Pillar | Landscape mission with farmers and conservation agencies | Hectares in the mission ↑ | | Standards | Pillar | Common biodiversity monitoring records | Sites reporting ↑ | | Reports | Pillar | Nature and nutrition profile | Indicators tracked ↑ | | Academy | Pillar | Course on nature-dependent farming | Advisers qualified ↑ | | Value at risk | Cited value | Annual global crop output that depends on animal pollination. IPBES, Assessment report on pollinators, 2016 | $235–577B crop output at risk a year | | Planning | Phase (Q1, G0) | F14 Each system's rooms become a learning-by-doing course | 1 handoff(s) | | Readiness preparation | Phase (Q2, G2) | F01 Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision case; F08 Composed mission profiles and national adoption records | 2 handoff(s) | | Controlled build | Phase (Q2, G3) | F02 Core Build Report and go or no-go evidence; F13 Validation and monitoring evidence for conformance review | 2 handoff(s) | | Closeout | Phase (Q3, G5) | F03 Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile; F10 Assessed cycle tasks become completion evidence | 2 handoff(s) | | After-action review | Phase (Q3) | F04 After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13; F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 | 2 handoff(s) | | Correction | Phase (Q4) | F06 Method and correction findings as change proposals | 1 handoff(s) | | Docket review | Phase (Q4) | F07 Docket items that need a standard or a profile | 1 handoff(s) | | Renewal | Phase (Q4, G7) | F09 Each adopted standard or profile becomes a course module; F11 Qualified participants for the next cycle's roles; F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate | 3 handoff(s) |
## Coupled risk | Sector | In this context | Stress after four rounds | | --------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------ | | [Water](/organization/model/sectors/water.md) | Outside this context | – | | [Energy](/organization/model/sectors/energy.md) | Outside this context | – | | [Infrastructure](/organization/model/sectors/infrastructure.md) | Outside this context | – | | [Food](/organization/model/sectors/food.md) | Depends on biodiversity for pollination and soils | 0.15 | | [Health](/organization/model/sectors/health.md) | Depends on food for nutrition | 0.12 | | [Biodiversity](/organization/model/sectors/biodiversity.md) | Hit first; then depends on food for land conversion | 0.63 | Amplification ×1.51; 3 of the 15 relations in play; coupling 0.21 of the total. Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen. **What it means for a study.** Pollinator decline is the least coupled context: three sectors and three relations. It is slow, and its harm arrives through yields and diets rather than through infrastructure. It shows that a low amplification does not mean a small risk: the crop output that depends on animal pollination is large. ## Applied response | Pillar | Illustrative application | Measure it answers for | Better when | Sectors served | | ----------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------- | ----------- | -------------------------- | | [Labs](/organization/programme/labs.md) (applied) | Maps of pollinators and the yields that depend on them | Area mapped | higher | Food, Biodiversity | | [Foundry](/organization/programme/foundry.md) (applied) | Yield and diet-quality model by crop | Crops modelled | higher | Food, Health | | [Nexus Universe](/organization/programme/universe.md) | Landscape mission with farmers and conservation agencies | Hectares in the mission | higher | Food, Biodiversity | | [Nexus Standards](/organization/programme/standards.md) (applied) | Common biodiversity monitoring records | Sites reporting | higher | Biodiversity | | [Nexus Reports](/organization/programme/reports.md) (applied) | Nature and nutrition profile | Indicators tracked | higher | Food, Health, Biodiversity | | [Risk Academy](/organization/programme/academy.md) | Course on nature-dependent farming | Advisers qualified | higher | Food, Biodiversity | **What it means for a response.** The response is observation and shared records over large areas. Labs maps pollinators and the yields that depend on them; the Foundry models yield and diet quality by crop; Standards sets common biodiversity monitoring records; Reports publishes a nature and nutrition profile. In every case the responsible government, operator or licensed institution decides and acts; the programme informs that decision. ## Published benchmarks | Slot | Value | What it measures | Source | | -------------------- | ------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Value at risk | $235–577B crop output at risk a year | Annual global crop output that depends on animal pollination | [IPBES, Assessment report on pollinators, 2016](https://www.ipbes.net/assessment-reports/pollinators) | | Return on resilience | – | No published benchmark for this context | – | | Avoided loss | – | No published benchmark for this context | – | Each value is international evidence with its own scope, cited on the same line. None is a forecast for any project or place. See [Method and limits](/organization/model/method-and-limits.md) for how to read the values precisely. ## On the public sites No public home page shows this context by default; readers can select it on any of the GCRI, GRF and GRA home pages. ## Related pages [All scenarios](/organization/model/scenarios.md) · [Coupled risk](/organization/model/coupled-risk.md) · [Applied response](/organization/model/applied-response.md) · [Food](/organization/model/sectors/food.md) · [Health](/organization/model/sectors/health.md) · [Biodiversity](/organization/model/sectors/biodiversity.md) ## Sources * IPBES, Assessment report on pollinators, 2016. * The model data: the "Coupled risk, applied response" section of the [GCRI home page](https://therisk.global/). --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. 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