> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.therisk.global/organization/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.therisk.global/organization/model/scenarios/blackout.md). # Grid blackout Grid blackout: the coupled risk across water, energy, infrastructure, food and health, and the applied response of the programme pillars, as a teaching context of the Nexus model. **Where this fits:** water, energy, infrastructure, food and health · Foundry, Nexus Universe, Nexus Standards and Risk Academy · the Nexus Consortium · the whole programme year · teaching context. > Without power, water treatment, telecoms, cold chains and hospitals fall back on fuel that runs out. **In brief.** In this teaching context energy is hit first. 5 of the six sectors are in play through 10 of the fifteen relations, a coupling of 0.72 of the whole system, and the teaching cascade amplifies the initial shock ×2.80. On the response side, 4 of the six pillars apply, with 9 of the eighteen handoffs in play and 8 feedback loops closed. All sector values are **teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place**; the applications are illustrative and the cited values are published benchmarks, not forecasts.
Two hexagons for grid blackout. Left, coupled risk: energy is hit first; 5 of the six sectors (water, energy, infrastructure, food and health) are in play through 10 of the fifteen relations, and the teaching cascade amplifies the initial shock 2.80 times. Right, applied response: 4 of the six programme pillars apply (Foundry, Universe, Standards and Academy), with 9 of the eighteen handoffs between them in play and 8 feedback loops closed; the cited headline value is 4 : 1 benefit to cost. Underneath, the eight phases of the programme year in which handoffs happen.

Coupled risk, applied response: grid blackout. Left: teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements. Right: illustrative applications and the measure each pillar answers for; values are published benchmarks (World Bank, Lifelines, 2019), not forecasts. Source: the sectors and pillars model published on the GCRI, GRF and GRA home pages, vendored and hash-pinned in tools/figures/vendor/nexus-model. As of 2026-10-21.

Figure data (text alternative) | Element | Kind | Description | Value | | ------------------------- | ---------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Water and Energy | Relation in play | Water to energy: cooling water and hydropower (0.6); Energy to water: pumping and treatment (0.5) | 0.55 | | Water and Infrastructure | Relation in play | Water to infrastructure: erosion and flood damage (0.3); Infrastructure to water: pipes, dams and treatment works (0.6) | 0.45 | | Water and Food | Relation in play | Water to food: irrigation (0.8); Food to water: withdrawals and runoff (0.3) | 0.55 | | Water and Health | Relation in play | Water to health: drinking water and sanitation (0.7); Health to water: utility workforce (0.2) | 0.45 | | Energy and Infrastructure | Relation in play | Energy to infrastructure: power for transport and telecoms (0.8); Infrastructure to energy: transmission and fuel logistics (0.6) | 0.70 | | Energy and Food | Relation in play | Energy to food: fertiliser, machinery and cold chains (0.5); Food to energy: bioenergy feedstock (0.2) | 0.35 | | Energy and Health | Relation in play | Energy to health: hospital power (0.5); Health to energy: grid workforce (0.2) | 0.35 | | Infrastructure and Food | Relation in play | Infrastructure to food: transport to market (0.5); Food to infrastructure: rural roads and storage (0.1) | 0.30 | | Infrastructure and Health | Relation in play | Infrastructure to health: access to care (0.5); Health to infrastructure: workforce for operations (0.3) | 0.40 | | Food and Health | Relation in play | Food to health: nutrition (0.7); Health to food: farm labour (0.3) | 0.50 | | Water | Sector | depends on infrastructure for pipes, dams and treatment works | stress 0.21 | | Energy | Sector | first hit, then depends on water for cooling water and hydropower | stress 0.72 | | Infrastructure | Sector | depends on energy for power for transport and telecoms | stress 0.25 | | Food | Sector | depends on water for irrigation | stress 0.24 | | Health | Sector | depends on water for drinking water and sanitation | stress 0.26 | | Biodiversity | Sector | outside this context | – | | Amplification | Cascade | Shock 0.6 at Energy, gain 0.35, 4 rounds; coupling 0.72 of the total | ×2.80 | | F01 | Handoff in play | Universe to Foundry: Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision case | Readiness preparation | | F02 | Handoff in play | Foundry to Universe: Core Build Report and go or no-go evidence | Controlled build | | F03 | Handoff | Foundry to Reports: Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile | Closeout | | F04 | Handoff | Universe to Reports: After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 | After-action review | | F05 | Handoff | Foundry to Reports: National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 | After-action review | | F06 | Handoff | Reports to Standards: Method and correction findings as change proposals | Correction | | F07 | Handoff in play | Universe to Standards: Docket items that need a standard or a profile | Docket review | | F08 | Handoff in play | Standards to Foundry: Composed mission profiles and national adoption records | Readiness preparation | | F09 | Handoff in play | Standards to Academy: Each adopted standard or profile becomes a course module | Renewal | | F10 | Handoff in play | Universe to Academy: Assessed cycle tasks become completion evidence | Closeout | | F11 | Handoff in play | Academy to Universe: Qualified participants for the next cycle's roles | Renewal | | F12 | Handoff | Reports to Universe: Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate | Renewal | | F13 | Handoff in play | Foundry to Standards: Validation and monitoring evidence for conformance review | Controlled build | | F14 | Handoff in play | Foundry to Academy: Each system's rooms become a learning-by-doing course | Planning | | R1 | Handoff | Standards to Reports: Applied in editions | Around the ring | | R2 | Handoff | Reports to Academy: Taught in the open | Around the ring | | R3 | Handoff | Academy to Labs: Questions become experiments | Around the ring | | R4 | Handoff | Labs to Foundry: Tested prototypes are built | Around the ring | | Labs | Pillar | Cascade model of what fails when the grid does | Dependencies mapped ↑ | | Foundry | Pillar | Twin of backup fuel, water treatment and cold chains | Hours of autonomy ↑ | | Universe | Pillar | Black-start exercise across utilities and hospitals | Hours to restore ↓ $390B | | Standards | Pillar | Interdependency records shared by operators | Operators sharing ↑ | | Reports | Pillar | Lifeline resilience profile | Outage hours a year ↓ | | Academy | Pillar | Course on interdependent infrastructure | Operators qualified ↑ | | Value at risk | Cited value | At least, by households and firms in low- and middle-income countries to infrastructure disruptions. World Bank, Lifelines, 2019 | $390B a year at least, in infrastructure disruption costs to households and firms in low- and middle-income countries | | Return on resilience | Cited value | Net benefit of more resilient infrastructure in developing countries, over the life of the assets. World Bank, Lifelines, 2019 | 4 : 1 benefit to cost | | Planning | Phase (Q1, G0) | F14 Each system's rooms become a learning-by-doing course | 1 handoff(s) | | Readiness preparation | Phase (Q2, G2) | F01 Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision case; F08 Composed mission profiles and national adoption records | 2 handoff(s) | | Controlled build | Phase (Q2, G3) | F02 Core Build Report and go or no-go evidence; F13 Validation and monitoring evidence for conformance review | 2 handoff(s) | | Closeout | Phase (Q3, G5) | F03 Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile; F10 Assessed cycle tasks become completion evidence | 2 handoff(s) | | After-action review | Phase (Q3) | F04 After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13; F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 | 2 handoff(s) | | Correction | Phase (Q4) | F06 Method and correction findings as change proposals | 1 handoff(s) | | Docket review | Phase (Q4) | F07 Docket items that need a standard or a profile | 1 handoff(s) | | Renewal | Phase (Q4, G7) | F09 Each adopted standard or profile becomes a course module; F11 Qualified participants for the next cycle's roles; F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate | 3 handoff(s) |
## Coupled risk | Sector | In this context | Stress after four rounds | | --------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------ | | [Water](/organization/model/sectors/water.md) | Depends on infrastructure for pipes, dams and treatment works | 0.21 | | [Energy](/organization/model/sectors/energy.md) | Hit first; then depends on water for cooling water and hydropower | 0.72 | | [Infrastructure](/organization/model/sectors/infrastructure.md) | Depends on energy for power for transport and telecoms | 0.25 | | [Food](/organization/model/sectors/food.md) | Depends on water for irrigation | 0.24 | | [Health](/organization/model/sectors/health.md) | Depends on water for drinking water and sanitation | 0.26 | | [Biodiversity](/organization/model/sectors/biodiversity.md) | Outside this context | – | Amplification ×2.80; 10 of the 15 relations in play; coupling 0.72 of the total. Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen. **What it means for a study.** A grid blackout starts in one sector and reaches four others: water treatment, telecoms, cold chains and hospitals all fall back on stored fuel. With ten relations in play it is one of the most tightly coupled contexts. The quantity a study has to measure is autonomy: how long each service holds without grid power. ## Applied response | Pillar | Illustrative application | Measure it answers for | Better when | Sectors served | | ----------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- | ----------- | ------------------------------ | | [Labs](/organization/programme/labs.md) | Cascade model of what fails when the grid does | Dependencies mapped | higher | Energy, Infrastructure | | [Foundry](/organization/programme/foundry.md) (applied) | Twin of backup fuel, water treatment and cold chains | Hours of autonomy | higher | Water, Energy, Food, Health | | [Nexus Universe](/organization/programme/universe.md) (applied) | Black-start exercise across utilities and hospitals | Hours to restore | lower | Energy, Infrastructure, Health | | [Nexus Standards](/organization/programme/standards.md) (applied) | Interdependency records shared by operators | Operators sharing | higher | Water, Energy, Infrastructure | | [Nexus Reports](/organization/programme/reports.md) | Lifeline resilience profile | Outage hours a year | lower | Energy, Infrastructure | | [Risk Academy](/organization/programme/academy.md) (applied) | Course on interdependent infrastructure | Operators qualified | higher | Energy, Infrastructure | **What it means for a response.** The response rehearses black start across sectors. The Foundry models backup fuel, water treatment and cold chains together; Universe exercises a black start across utilities and hospitals and answers for hours to restore; Standards gives operators shared interdependency records; Academy qualifies operators in interdependent infrastructure. In every case the responsible government, operator or licensed institution decides and acts; the programme informs that decision. ## Published benchmarks | Slot | Value | What it measures | Source | | -------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Value at risk | $390B a year at least, in infrastructure disruption costs to households and firms in low- and middle-income countries | At least, by households and firms in low- and middle-income countries to infrastructure disruptions | [World Bank, Lifelines, 2019](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31805) | | Return on resilience | 4 : 1 benefit to cost | Net benefit of more resilient infrastructure in developing countries, over the life of the assets | [World Bank, Lifelines, 2019](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31805) | | Avoided loss | – | No published benchmark for this context | – | Each value is international evidence with its own scope, cited on the same line. None is a forecast for any project or place. See [Method and limits](/organization/model/method-and-limits.md) for how to read the values precisely. ## On the public sites The same context, with the same values, is shown on the [GRA about](https://globalriskalliance.com/about/) page. ## Related pages [All scenarios](/organization/model/scenarios.md) · [Coupled risk](/organization/model/coupled-risk.md) · [Applied response](/organization/model/applied-response.md) · [Water](/organization/model/sectors/water.md) · [Energy](/organization/model/sectors/energy.md) · [Infrastructure](/organization/model/sectors/infrastructure.md) · [Food](/organization/model/sectors/food.md) · [Health](/organization/model/sectors/health.md) ## Sources * World Bank, Lifelines, 2019. * The model data: the "Coupled risk, applied response" section of the [GCRI home page](https://therisk.global/). --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. 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