> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.therisk.global/organization/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.therisk.global/organization/model/scenarios.md). # Scenarios The eight teaching contexts of the Nexus model, from urban flood to pollinator decline, each linking a pattern of coupled risk to the pillars, measures and handoffs of the applied response. **Where this fits:** all six sectors · all six pillars · the Nexus Consortium · the whole programme year · model landing. **In brief.** A scenario, or teaching context, is a named way in which sectors fail together. Each context selects the sectors in play and the sectors hit first; the teaching cascade then shows how far the first hit spreads. The same context selects, on the response side, the pillars that apply, the measure each answers for and the handoffs between them. The eight contexts below are the ones the GCRI, GRF and GRA home pages offer. All sector values are **teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place**; applications are illustrative, and the cited values are published benchmarks. | Context | Hit first | Sectors in play | Relations | Coupling | Amplification | Pillars applied | Handoffs in play | | ------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- | --------- | -------- | ------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------- | | [Urban flood](/organization/model/scenarios/urban-flood.md) | Water, Infrastructure | Water, Energy, Infrastructure, Health | 6 of 15 | 0.46 | ×2.06 | Labs, Foundry, Nexus Universe, Nexus Standards, Risk Academy | 11 of 18 | | [Hydropower reservoir](/organization/model/scenarios/hydropower.md) | Water | Water, Energy, Infrastructure, Biodiversity | 6 of 15 | 0.41 | ×1.90 | Labs, Foundry, Nexus Standards, Nexus Reports | 7 of 18 | | [Drought](/organization/model/scenarios/drought.md) | Water | Water, Energy, Food, Health, Biodiversity | 10 of 15 | 0.68 | ×2.89 | Labs, Foundry, Nexus Universe, Nexus Standards, Nexus Reports, Risk Academy | 18 of 18 | | [Heatwave](/organization/model/scenarios/heatwave.md) | Energy, Health | Water, Energy, Food, Health | 6 of 15 | 0.43 | ×1.69 | Foundry, Nexus Universe, Nexus Reports, Risk Academy | 10 of 18 | | [Grid blackout](/organization/model/scenarios/blackout.md) | Energy | Water, Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health | 10 of 15 | 0.72 | ×2.80 | Foundry, Nexus Universe, Nexus Standards, Risk Academy | 9 of 18 | | [Pandemic](/organization/model/scenarios/pandemic.md) | Health | Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health | 6 of 15 | 0.41 | ×1.50 | Foundry, Nexus Universe, Nexus Reports, Risk Academy | 10 of 18 | | [Pollinator decline](/organization/model/scenarios/pollinator.md) | Biodiversity | Food, Health, Biodiversity | 3 of 15 | 0.21 | ×1.51 | Labs, Foundry, Nexus Standards, Nexus Reports | 7 of 18 | | [Coastal storm surge](/organization/model/scenarios/storm-surge.md) | Infrastructure, Biodiversity | Water, Energy, Infrastructure, Health, Biodiversity | 10 of 15 | 0.64 | ×2.13 | Labs, Foundry, Nexus Universe, Nexus Standards, Nexus Reports | 12 of 18 | ## Reading the table * **Hit first** names the sectors where the shock lands. In a pandemic it is health; in a coastal storm surge it is infrastructure and biodiversity together. * **Relations** and **coupling** say how much of the system's interdependence the context activates. Drought, grid blackout and coastal storm surge activate ten of the fifteen relations; pollinator decline activates three. * **Amplification** is the total stress after four rounds of the teaching cascade divided by the initial shock. It shows that the same shock does more harm where coupling is tight. It is not a loss estimate. * **Pillars applied** and **handoffs in play** show the shape of the response. In a drought every pillar applies and all eighteen handoffs are in play; in a hydropower reservoir four pillars apply and seven handoffs. A low amplification does not mean a small risk. Pollinator decline couples only three sectors, yet the annual crop output that depends on animal pollination is valued at $235 to $577 billion (IPBES, [2016](https://www.ipbes.net/assessment-reports/pollinators)). ## Sources * IPBES (2016). *The Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production.* Bonn: IPBES secretariat. * The model data: the "Coupled risk, applied response" section of the [GCRI home page](https://therisk.global/). --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation by asking a question. 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